RACIAL PROFILING
COCONINO COUNTY VIOLATOR STUDY REPORT
STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF I-17 VIOLATOR STUDY
STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF I-40 STOP DATA

     The second step in determining if a colorable claim of racial profiling exists involves determining the racial and ethnic composition of people violating motor vehicle laws in Yavapai County and thus eligible to be stopped by Officers from the Arizona Department of Public Safety. To make this determination, I designed a violator survey of I-17 in Yavapai County. The methodology of this study was consistent with methodological guidelines established by four experts (two working for the state and two working for the defense) in the recent Coconino County racial profiling case (State v. Folkes et al.). The experts involved in designing the Coconino methodology included myself, Dr. John Lamberth of Temple University, Mr. Shappard Wolf of Arizona State University and Dr. Jeffrey Wilson of Arizona State University. This study was also conducted in accordance with standards acceptable within the discipline of social research and similar in nature to those accepted by the courts in the cases of New Jersey v. Soto, et. al. and Wilkens v. Maryland State Police.

     The Yavapai County Violator Study was carried out under my direction during the dates of Wednesday, April 3 through Tuesday, April 9, 2002 (see Appendix A). During this one-week period, I randomly selected 14 four hour time periods between 6:00 am and 6:00 pm. During each shift, a mini-van carrying a three-person observation team, drove at the speed limit starting from Flagstaff and proceeded South on I-17 to Exit 242 (Rock Springs). Observation teams began recording information once inside the Yavapai County border (MP 311). At Exit 242, the observation car turned around and traveled North back to Flagstaff. The observation car drove approximately 200 miles during each four-hour shift, 138 miles within Yavapai County.

     The observation team was instructed to record observations of drivers who violated motor vehicle laws (violators) and drivers who did not violate any motor vehicle laws (nonviolators) while driving on I-17 within the boundaries of Yavapai County (between Exists 311 and 242). They were to record the race and ethnicity of all observed drivers (emergency vehicles, Arizona Department of Transportation vehicles, law enforcement and military vehicles were excluded from this study). A complete description of the survey methodology is contained in the I-17 Yavapai County Colorable Claim Violator Survey Report prepared by myself.

     The results of the survey indicate that 1583 cars were observed within Yavapai County during the 112 hour study. One-half of these cars (785) were observed to be violating at least one Arizona motor vehicle law.

Among the violator population, 86 percent of drivers were identified as being White, non-Hispanic (84.3%) or Probably White, non-Hispanic (1.7%). Thirteen percent of motor vehicle law violators were identified as being of a racial or ethnic minority group (1.1% African American, 2.8% American Indian, 5.7% Hispanic, 0.6% Asian, and 2.9% Probable Minority) (see Table 2).

COMPARISON OF AVAILABLE DATA

     The final step is to compare the racial and ethnic composition of known cases to the racial and ethnic composition of the potential violator population.

     In this situation, we hypothesize that minorities are being stopped on the highway by Department of Public Safety Officers in numbers that are disproportionate to their representation within the total violator population. Bringing together the two data sources available to this researcher, a disproportionately larger percentage of minorities are represented in the population of known stops as are represented in the population of potential violators (see Table 3).

     White motorists are 60 percent less likely to be stopped by a DPS Officer relative to their known representation within the violator population. African American motorists are 3,693 percent more likely to be stopped relative to their representation within the violator population. Hispanic motorists are 62 percent more likely to be stopped relative to their representation within the violator population.

     The hypothesis that minorities are being stopped on the highway by Department of Public Safety Officers in numbers that are disproportionate to their representation within the total violator population is found to be true. The colorable claim test of racial profiling taking place on I-17 within the boundaries of Yavapai County is met.

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